Europe is a divisive issue and always will be.

Gordon Brown has said that there is no need for a referendum on the recently agreed EU Treaty.

Now Labour did say that there would be a referendum on the EU Constitution. Instead, it looks likely that Parliament will spend about a month next year discussing the finer details of the treaty.

Personally, I am not a fan of holding referendums. Britain is a representative parliamentary democracy, after all. If a referendum was to be held on the treaty, then it would not matter what the question was, it would effectively become a question whether you wanted to come out of the EU or stay in the EU.

I predict that at the end of the process, those who want to withdraw from Europe will still want to withdraw and those in favour of staying in Europe will still favour staying in. Not one mind will be changed.
 
Of all the issues, Europe is the one with the most myths – all that straight bananas rubbish.

There were myths doing the rounds about the current treaty before it had even been agreed, before any word was put to paper.

So now it has been put to paper – and translated from French to English – what does it actually do? Not a lot as far as I can see.

Contrary to what has been stated, it does not appear that we are surrendering all vital powers to Brussels. Britain will retain control over key national policy areas – justice, home affairs, social security, tax, foreign policy and defence.

It was also suggested that the treaty will mean that the UK will have to give up its seat on the UN Security Council. I can’t see that anywhere in the treaty. The UN Charter is clear that international organisations – such as the EU – can not be members of the UN.

And we are going to have a President of Europe, who will have ultimate power in Europe? Nope. That isn’t happening either. There will be a full-time President of the European Council who will take on the duties of the current European Council President. At the moment the post is held for just six months. What is being proposed by the treaty is that the time served will increase to two and a half years.

In fact, as I read the treaty, we will have more power to say No to Europe than we do at the moment. In the treaty, national parliaments will have a direct role – for the very first time – in deciding whether EU legislation is necessary. Surely this is positive?

As I see it, the treaty is not the same as the previous constitution. Now this comment will have some folk frothing at the mouth condemning me as some sort of Europe-loving traitor. Well, I have never regarded myself as a particular Euro-phile nor am I a complete sceptic. There has been good and bad from the EU – it’s a simple as that.

So the treaty is not the same. Many of the issues that have got people hot under the collar in fact we signed away by the Tories when they agreed to the Maastricht treaty.

After the French and Dutch ‘No’ votes, the Constitution was dead. The EU’s 27 national leaders agreed that it should be abandoned.

However, it was also agreed that an organisation with 27 members needed to check out its rules to see if they could be updated to make the EU function more efficiently. That is what this treaty is trying to achieve - it’s as simple as that. Whether it succeeds is running more efficiently is another matter, of course, but there is nothing wrong in trying.

What of the other countries in the EU? The French are resisting another referendum as are the Dutch. The only country that is likely to hold a referendum on the treaty is Ireland because it is in its written constituency and a legal judgement which deemed it necessary. 

Of course, there are similarities between the constitution and the treaty, because much of the constitution was connected with modernising the EU to cope with 27 members.

Whether it is 90 per cent the same or 95 per cent the same isn’t the point. After all, we share the majority of our genes with mice. That does not make us all mice.

So will there be a General Election on 1st November?

Speculation has reached fever pitch. In Westminster, staff working for Conservative MPs have emptied their offices, locked the doors and headed to their respective constituencies for the ensuing battle - convinced that the General Election will be announced on Tuesday 9th November. Or is this simply a reaction to media-fuelled hysteria? Logic and reasoning tells me that the latter is the more likely scenario.

Since Gordon Brown became Prime Minister, political journalists have been speculating on when the next General Election will be held. I recall the sensational scoops that suggested as soon as Gordon became PM, he would call an election. They came to nothing. Next speculation moved on to an October election. Gordon would announce it during his conference address. ..

He didn't.

Now the media hacks have got 1st November in their sights.

Let's look at this logically - will Gordon really cut and run on 9th October - a good two and a half years before he needs to.

1 - The Opinion Polls

The polls were looking good after conference but we've yet to see what the effect of Cameron's speech will be. Even with no change - are the really good enough? Labour needs to be ahead by about 5 per cent to return the same number of MPs as in 2005 - based on the same constituency boundaries (more of which later.) The current polls strip out the third of voters who haven't made up their mind. Add in margins of error and the reality is that Labour has not been far enough ahead for a long enough sustained period in the polls to guarantee a General Election win.

2 - Boundary Changes

The most recent constituency boundary changes have not been good for Labour. All the predictions from the political journos tend to be based on current boundaries. However, on the new boundaries, Labour is already down by around 25 MPs.

3 - Better than Blair

If Gordon Brown calls an election now and has a smaller majority than Tony Blair, this will be viewed as a failure. He wants to win by more than TB did to exert his authority. Given Labour has already 'lost' 25 MPs to boundary changes, this means Labour has to win back 25 seats out of the 47 seats Labour lost at the last election. Academic research reveals that people will give those new Tory MPs the benefit of the doubt, so they will be hard to defeat.

4 - What does he know that we don't?

Gordon does not need to call an election yet - the last General Election was just over two years ago. Opinion polling reveals that people do not want a General Election. Going now looks suspicious. It's the 'what does he know that we don't' scenario. People feel that something bad is lurking around the corner and GB is trying to hide it.

5 - Computer says No

Labour is developing a super-duper, all-singing, all-dancing new computer programme to fight elections. It's not ready yet!

6 - The missing millions

Electoral registration officers sent out registration forms in mid-August. Not all of these have been returned yet and of those that have been, council staff are still updating their records. If Labour fights an election based on old data, millions of people may lose their votes. In marginals, this matters.

7 - Postal Votes

The new rules on Postal Voting were used for the first time this year for council elections. There were problems with the 'personal identifiers' and solutions to those problems have not yet been agreed.

8 - Postal Strikes

The Communication Workers Union has planned a series of strikes. Postal workers deliver postal votes and election addresses. Strikes during an election would undermine the democratic process by disenfranchising members of the public.

9- Scotland the not-so-brave

In GB's own backyard, Labour are out of power and the SNP are running Scotland and it appears many Scottish residents are pleasantly surprised by Alex Salmond. Labour needs more time to regroup in Scotland.

10 - It never rains but it pours. 

A November election means wet, dark and possibly cold evenings. Once it gets dark, people don't tend to vote. So dark evenings effectively reduces the number of hours to persuade people to go to the polls.

11 - Gordon's epitaph

If Gordon goes to the polls now and loses, he will be the shortest serving PM in history (who hasn't been removed by death - George Canning.) Gordon will be regarded as a failure. The loonies would take over the Labour Party demanding a return to 'proper' left-wing policies and Labour would be out of power for a generation. Will the man who has waited 12 years to become PM want that epitaph on his political grave stone. I hope not!

So the Lib Dems want to change the name of NE Lincolnshire.

I have to admit that many of the people who contact me about the council call it and its leadership some very colourful names – most of which are not suitable for publication!

It can be confusing to have three councils with Lincolnshire as part of their name – especially as Cleethorpes, as a parliamentary constituency, is covered by two of them!

It’s right to say that loads of people can’t place Lincolnshire on a map, but then again, they probably couldn’t place Lancashire or Shropshire either. I’m not sure that changing the name to Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes Borough Council would make much of a difference.

No disrespect, but this name change completely neglects the town of Immingham. But that’s typical of NE Lincolnshire…or whatever they think they should be called. 

Let’s face it - a council’s main function is to deliver high-quality, value-for-money services for its residents. Given the money problems that the council had experienced, perhaps the council should concentrate on improving their services  rather wasting council tax payers' money on a name change. Will a name change mend more cracked paving stone, upgrade street lights, clean the town, fill potholes? No.

I have a stack of letters from the council saying that they can’t do this or that because they don’t have enough money. 

If they can afford £100,000 for a name change (and let’s face it – it would cost a lot more than that…then why are they getting rid of the wardens in sheltered blocks?

And on to the costs.

All signage would have to be changed – the signs the town hall and all other council buildings, the roads signs as people enter the council area, signs outside schools, the signs all along the prom and beach and all the information boards All stationery would have to be changed. All council vehicles will have to be resprayed, council uniforms will have to be changed. No doubt a name change would mean a change of logo, too – more expense.

There will also be extra costs incurred by other organisations. 

Changes like this usually turn out to be far more expensive in the long run with the cost falling upon council tax payers. Look at the abolition of the loathed Humberside – we are still paying through the nose for that change.

The council is simply an administrative area. While it may not be the most scintillating of names, north east Lincolnshire does at a most basic level describe the geographic area and includes everyone within the name. 

CHECK OUT MY SPEECH ON HISTORIC COUNTIES IN THE SPEECHES SECTION

‘After hearing the speech of the hon. Member for Scarborough and Whitby (Mr. Goodwill), I wanted to participate in the debate. The same controversial topic that he mentioned rages around my constituency. I represent Cleethorpes, which is in Lincolnshire. However, three local authorities cover the historic county of Lincolnshire: Lincolnshire county council, North Lincolnshire council and, to add to the confusion, North-East Lincolnshire council.
‘It is not only local people who get confused. When I table parliamentary questions that ask for facts and figures about North-East Lincolnshire and North Lincolnshire, I often get figures for Lincolnshire. Even here, there is confusion about exactly where Cleethorpes is.
‘For years, Humberside was the local authority. When that was abolished, the area on the south bank of the River Humber, formerly known as South Humberside, became North Lincolnshire and North-East Lincolnshire. However, some young people grew up with the name "Humberside" and do not identify with "Lincolnshire". Others genuinely loathe "Humberside" and hate "South Humberside" even more. I do not know whether it is down to Post Office or other services, but when organisations buy mailing lists and databases, "South Humberside" continues to turn up. People do not like getting junk mail, but when they get it with "South Humberside" on it, they write to me saying, "The council was abolished years ago. We live in Lincolnshire." So there is certainly merit in the hon. Gentleman's Bill.
‘Another problem, which was touched on by the hon. Member for Scarborough and Whitby, is that we are also represented by Yorkshire and the Humber. My constituents repeatedly tell me that we are in Lincolnshire, and that the Humber is a river. When Humberside was abolished, people must have said, "Oh, what shall we call the Government region? Ah, yes, we'll call it the Humber!" That irritates my constituents as well, because there are only three and a half constituencies in Lincolnshire that are in the Yorkshire and the Humber region—Brigg and Goole is split between Yorkshire and Lincolnshire. That issue still creates problems. The police force is still called Humberside police, and we still have Radio Humberside.
‘I have been told by the Post Office that all that is required to avoid confusion when addressing a letter is the postal town and the postcode. My constituents write to me to say, "Why is 'South Humberside' still appearing on our mail? Why is 'Humberside' still appearing? Why can't people just put 'Lincolnshire'?" I write back and tell them that the Post Office has advised me that all they need is the postal town and the postcode. Well, I am sorry, but that does not make them any happier, because the postcode that is used for the part of Lincolnshire that I represent—apart from a handful of houses in the southernmost corner—is DN, which is the postcode for Doncaster, in Yorkshire. People should be able to express their identity on road signs and on their addresses, to avoid some of the daft situations that we end up in.’

Did you know?

The average age of the Cabinet is 49.

The number of women in the Cabinet has dropped from eight to five.

The number of Scots has dropped from six to four.

The number of over 60s has dropped from five to one.

The number of over 40s has dropped to two from five.

The number of Cabinet ministers older than the Prime Minister has

dropped from 12 to three.

The last hours…

The buzz went around during Health Questions on Tuesday 26 June – a Tory MP has defected to Labour! No one seemed to believe it – not last the Tories on the opposite benches. But Blackberries were proffered around showing that the BBC’s top story was that a Lincolnshire Tory had defected to Labour – referring to David Cameron’s policies as being built on shifting sand. A Lincolnshire MP? I wondered who it would be. Edward Leigh? Not a chance. Sir Peter Tapsell. Never. He doesn’t even acknowledge that the Labour Party exists. Douglas Hogg. Can’t quite see it. It turns out to be Quentin Davies, the Conservative MP for Grantham and Stamford – the heart of Thatcher-land. I know QD fairly well – we served on the same select committee before the 2001 General Election and got on fairly well. Last year, he told me that he had been invited to Cleethorpes to speak to the Tory members. He asked what they were like and I told him that he should make up his own mind. On his return he confessed to me that he thought that the Conservatives in our area were ‘barking.’

When there is a defection, the protocol is that the MPs in the area swing into action to ensure that the new recruit is welcomed. I popped upstairs to Quentin’s office – which is on the floor above me – and said hello to the two lasses in his office, offering support and advice.

Later on, we had to get him to the dining room – I held the table in the dining room along with Elliot Morley (Scunthorpe). Gilliam Merron (Lincoln) and Ian Cawsey (Brigg and Goole) showed QD in – along with Treasury Minister - Dawn Primarolo, who used to be QD’s pair. When he came in, there was a cheer from Labour MPs with handshakes and hugs all round. QD was relaxed and appreciated the welcome. But what a bombshell to drop on the hapless David Cameron at a time when DC’s poll ratings are declining.

Step Two was PMQs.

We had to get QD into the Chamber at an appropriate time. Now the demand for seats in PMQs is always fierce – let alone when it’s the very last time that Tony Blair will be at the dispatch box.

It began at 8am when a group of us placed ‘prayer cards’ on the third row of seats behind the PM. MPs are not permitted to reserve seats. However, you can reserve places for prayers and, as long as you are present at prayers, you secure that place for the rest of the day. So there I was in the Chamber long before PMQs, protecting the places where QD would sit after he had been brought in by Gilliam Merron. It wasn’t easy. People grumbled and told me that they normally sat there. Thankfully, it all went to plan and at ten to twelve, Gillian and Quentin came into the Chamber and took their seats, to cheers from Labour watched by ashen-faced Tories.

At about five to twelve, David Cameron crept in almost unnoticed. Ming ‘The Zing’ Campbell read his notes and tried to stop his hands trembling. Upstairs in the gallery above Labour MPs, Cherie Booth and the four children took their places – little Leo kept sticking his head through the bars to peer down on to the packed House of Commons below. John Reid, standing down as Home Secretary, blew a little kiss upstairs to Cherie and the children. It has never been so busy – the atmosphere bristled.

As I waited for Quentin Davis, to come in, a group of us finessed our plan to give TB brilliant send off.

How about a standing ovation?

Possible – Wilson and Thatcher got a standing ovation at their last PMQs.

Gerald Kaufman and Shahid Malik sitting behind me reckoned it would be fitting, but we would need to judge the mood of the House. As we waiting for the clock to reach midday – the message was passed around – give TB a standing ovation. Whatever his faults, for whatever he got wrong, he has been the most successful Labour Prime Minister. Let’s give it a bit of wellie and break with protocol and clap and cheer as the end of PMQs.

The Speaker took us by surprise – he started PMQ a minute early. TB began with the usual solemnity of condolences for those troops who had lost their lives. David Cameron stood up to ask his questions. I had been musing how DC would cope with the occasion. Would he be magnanimous? Had he the skills to be able to cope with the unique occasion? Last week, William Hague performed superbly with John Prescott at JP's last outing. Humorous, reverential, wishing JP well. That is the protocol at these times.

As it turned out, Cameron was weak. He totally misjudged the mood of the House. The first half of PMQs was quite flat.

However, thanks to Richard Younger Ross – a Lib Dem from Devon – it all perked up. RYR, who is often referred to as the secret lovechild of Leo Sayer (and that’s from the Lib Dems) stood up and asked a daft question about the state, church and religion. TB paused and, in a perfect Katherine Tate moment, simply said: ‘I don’t think I can be bothered to answer that.’

As the questions went on, Leo Blair upstairs kept looking down at Dad.

Nicholas Winterton – a Conservative from Cheshire – stood up. ‘Ask about Europe!’ shouted out some wags. NW inflated his lungs and began his oration and – and…it was about Europe! Cheers all round. TB concluded with a simple: Au revoir, auf weidersehen, arrivederci. In acknowledgement of a good line, Winterton chuckled away to himself.

As we neared the end, the Revd Ian Paisley rose. The house fell silent – you could have heard a pin drop as the Rev’s sonorous burr filled the house. It was beautifully crafted – far better than DC or Ming the Zing. No one could have predicted it, but the Rev’s farewell was the most emotional – no one can deny how much Tony B put into bringing peace to NI. No one can deny that success.

By now, tears were welling up. We had clicked past 12.30pm when PMQs officially ends. But the Speaker let the business run on and called the Father of the House to say a final farewell to the Prime Minister.

We all knew it would be the last time that TB would be at the dispatch box – probably the last time he would appear in the house. But it wasn’t just TB, John Prescott is saying good bye, too – so is John Reid and Hilary Armstrong.

As Tony said: ‘That’s it – the end,’ and sat down, Labour MPs rose to give him a standing ovation accompanied by claps and cheers. Many cried – tears flowed from man and woman alike – backbencher and minister – awkward squad to loyal bencher. Two MPs on the opposition benches rose – Lady Sylvia Hermon from the Ulster Unionists and Tory MP Julie Kirkbride. The Lib Dems looked at one another, not knowing what to do, but a couple stood up and then so did the rest and joined in. Cameron and his front bench looked a little lost, but then DC realised that he ought to do something and beckoned his side to stand up, too. They did so, although some looked a little reluctant, but they rose nonetheless.  Upstairs, little Leo was peering through the railings. And then TB got up and walked out for the last time.

Au revoir. Auf wiedersehen. Arrivederci.

Deputy Leader Hustings at Church House Monday May 21

On Monday evening, MPs congregated in Church House – across the road from Parliament – to hear from the six candidates for deputy leader.

Each candidate had two minutes to make a speech. Then MPs could put questions to the candidates. Mps had a time limit of 30 seconds to ask their question. Twenty-nine MPs put questions to the candidates. Then each candidate in turn had 30 minutes to answer all the questions.

After the bum-numbing hustings, what conclusions do I reach? There was one clear loser with the other five on level pegging as regards performance and policy. No one would have changed their first choices based on these hustings. However, the hustings are affecting how people rank the remaining candidates. I know of two MPs who now have Harriet Harman last. Others have marked John Cruddas down after what they described as a rambling speech and poor-quality answers to the questions. Hilary Benn keeps inadvertently alienating more and more women at each hustings. The problem with Peter Hain remains that he represents a Welsh seat. With a Scottish Leader, we simply can not have a Welsh-based deputy. Hazel upset quite a number of MPs with her commitment to taking all the canvass records that MPs and local parties have carefully compiled over the years and amalgamating it into a huge national database that local parties have to access over the internet. Alan Johnson looked the most nervous of the candidates – front-runner syndrome? – and didn’t sparkle.

Here’s a summary of what they said…

John Cruddas

All the Tories have to do is run a party; we have to run Government departments as well. The Deputy doesn’t need to be a minister. The deputy should concentrate on rebuilding the party

Doesn’t like the idea of safe seats and marginal seats. Analysis of the last election shows we lost working class votes – are we addressing their needs? Black and ethnic voters have moved away from us – the war played a part. Mosaic Group E has moved a way from us. We have also lost public sector workers. We need a wide coalition and that takes a different form around the country. There is no difference between marginals and sale seats. Deputy should be in Cabinet, but have no other job. Need to rebuild national policy forum

Message: Get rid of the chair of the party and deputy prime minister.
Soundbite: There is no difference between marginals and safe seats.
Faux pas – Referred to the future deputy as ‘He’ and lost immediate support from many in the audience.  And saying there was no difference between safe and marginals seats.

Hilary Benn

There is much cynicism in politics. Wants to unite the party – not part of any faction. Would be happy to criticise GB. Grassroots Labour Party needs rebuilding. It’s all about policy. We won’t win on what we have done in the past. We need policies about affordable homes, carer, the economy, globalisation.

Not in favour of expelling militant at first. I was wrong. We need to raise money to win next time. Restore trust in politics. We need Warwick 2. There are limits to privatisation and not in favour of private health care.

Message: I’m not my dad.
Soundbite: Politics isn’t like shopping. If we end up with consumer politics, we are sunk.

Peter Hain

It is a vital job. We must reconnect the Government to the grassroots and the unions. Want to be the umbilical cord between government and the party. Will be loyal to Gordon and is not part of any faction.  Politics is not a career, but a passion. Look at Make Poverty History and the Green movement – we need to include them.

We need to revamp party organisation – very bad around the country. We must preach virtues of old-fashioned campaigning. We need to seize the leadership of the environmental agenda. We need to seize the leadership of the environmental agenda. Need to bring people in fro the green movement and the unions. Deal with BNP as we did the anti-Nazi League. Need to bring people back to Labour.

Message: I wrote pamphlets.
Soundbite:  Are we as hungry for power as the Tories? We must be by the next election. Then we can win. Faux pas: Describing himself as an umbilical cord - yuk!

Alan Johnson

TB and JP lead brilliantly. We need to work together to turn Labour into the natural party of Government and we have laid good foundations for this. To do this we mustn’t leave the centre ground. We have to tell people about what we have done and what we will do. We must engage the PLP in policy making. We can win a fourth term.

We need to fight the Lib Dems and the Tories. We must make it easier for unions to get involved and to speak to them by setting up own local discussion groups. We must be proud of public sector ethos. Get rid of referendum on council housing.

Hazel Blears

We must win the next election. There are no more Blairites. No more Brownites. We are just Labour. Ruthlessly work to win the next election. Ruthlessly focus on marginals – mostly in the SE.

Need to build organisation base – lay organisers, invest in our database, use mosaic data, need political education – like Salford Labour Academy for new members. Unions need to change, though.

Message: Everything will be done ruthlessly.
Soundbite: No more Blairites. No more Brownites. Just Labour.
Faux pas: Wait until you see our new campaigning database – it will record everything you do.

Harriet Harman

Tories think they have a god given right to win the next election. We can win with a larger majority. Mustn’t surrender any seat. Must not surrender any policy. We need to work in hard-pressed inner city areas like hers.

I joined the party to change the world. We got into Government because we won women’s votes –  they gave us the benefit of the doubt. Cameron is now trying to win women’s votes after winning the husky vote. Need to deal with the gap between rich and poor – not just people, but regions, too.

Message: I’m a girlie vote for me.
Soundbite: With me as Gordon’s Deputy, we will appeal to men and women – north, south, east and west to win the next election

It seems as if Gordon Brown will become leader when TB steps down. So the only real contest will be to elect GB's number 2.

 So, who to vote for?

Peter Hain…

The biggest thing against Peter is that he represents a Welsh constituency. If Gordon Brown becomes leader, then a Welsh-based deputy leaves England unrepresented in the leadership echelons.

Harriet Harman…

Considering Labour has a much higher percentage of women MPs than any other parliamentary party, it would be wonderful to have a female deputy. However, Harriet is very much Gordon’s girl and she would never say no to him.

Hilary Benn…

Don’t recall Hilary ever having had a conversation with me. Unlike his dad, who was very chatty. Benn senior and I share a birthday – 3 April (along with Doris Day and Marlon Brandon).

John Cruddas…

Won’t get sufficient nominations to stand.

Hazel Blears…

As the person who oversees the election, Hazel is in a tricky position.

Alan Johnson…

Represents an English seat, so scores over Hain. Represents a neighbouring constituency and isn’t London based. Both pluses. Doesn’t see himself as too grand to muck in with backbenchers. Has worked well with the other Labour MPs in this area, such as on the campaign to win compensation for the former distant water trawlermen. More recently, when Austin and I were campaigning to save the X1 bus, Alan turned up at a meeting we’d arranged with the bridge board to support the case. Not many cabinet ministers would do that. And he is the best counter-balance to Gordon. So AJ gets my vote.